Silverline
PRE · Reeding Field · V3
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SOURCE Kalshi public API · KXBTC15M (BTC up/down, 15-min) · fetched — · freshness — · auto-refresh 15s
Field State LIVE · Kalshi public
Provenance: current 15-min market from Kalshi /trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXBTC15M&status=open. Settlement basis: CF Benchmarks BRTI 60-second average.
READING
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settles in
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Target strike—
Contract price (YES)—
Implied up-prob—
24h volume—
PRE Evidence graded · PRE v1.0 engine
Provenance: Kalshi KXBTC15M resolved markets graded by the PRE engine — Wilson 95% CI, Bonferroni-corrected significance ladder (UNGRADED / PROVISIONAL / CALIBRATED), and a chronological 70/30 walk-forward out-of-sample validation. This is not a forecast.
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running engine…
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Calibrated slots—
OOS-validated—
Train / test split—
Resolved samples—
SlotSideUp-rate95% CInEdgeTrain→Test
Premium caveat: PRE grades historical tilt only. CALIBRATED does NOT mean the edge is real — most slot tilts are not significant once sample size and 96-way multiple comparisons are accounted for. A slot is only labeled an edge after it survives BOTH Bonferroni calibration AND out-of-sample persistence. Inspect, do not act on this as a forecast.
Quote Surface LIVE · Kalshi public
Provenance: order-book quotes from the open Kalshi market —. Prices in dollars per $1 binary contract. Freshness shown above. Read-only — no execution.
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YES ask · bid —
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NO ask · bid —
contract price (YES) · last 30 min—
Validated Edge Slots
Decision-grade edges onlyGRADED
Provenance: PRE engine output — slots that survived Bonferroni calibration AND 70/30 walk-forward out-of-sample persistence. If empty, no decision-grade edge exists; the table then falls back to unvalidated descriptive stats (full-sample tilt) for transparency only — those are NOT significance-tested edges.
SlotSideUp-rate95% CInEdgeTrain→Test
24h Historical Up-Rate Heatmap
96 slots · UTCHISTORICAL
Provenance: Kalshi KXBTC15M settled markets, up-rate per UTC 15-min slot. Amber outline = current slot. Color is paired with text labels (never color alone).
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down-tilt up-tilt · empty = no settled sample
Expected-Value Calculator
Pricing context for manual inspectionLOCAL · your inputs
Provenance: calculation runs locally in your browser on the numbers you enter. Not advice. Kalshi binary pays $1 per contract on a correct side.
EV per $1 staked—
EV ($)—
Break-even price—
Edge vs price—
Contracts—
Potential payout—
EV is expected value over many identical bets, not a guarantee on any single one. A positive historical EV on a near-coin-flip market is usually noise, not edge. Not financial advice.
Manual Bet Ledger
Your manual recordsLOCAL · in-memory
Separate from the evidence above. This preview stores bets in memory only — they reset on reload (sandbox blocks storage). No connection to any exchange or order.
SlotSide¢StakeResultP&L
No bets recorded yet. Add one above.
Historical backtest / probability tool — not financial advice. BTC is close to a random walk at 15-minute scale — the base rate is roughly a coin flip (the live Kalshi data on this page shows an overall up-rate near 50%). Most time-of-day edges are not statistically significant once you account for sample size and multiple comparisons. Any single slot's win rate is a weak, regime-dependent signal, never a guarantee. Past performance does not predict future results. Silverline surfaces historical context for manual inspection only — it does not execute, place, or auto-resolve bets.